Your Thanksgiving turkey dinner could have a considerably greater price ticket this yr, as a worsening hen flu epidemic threatens US flocks and turkey provides.
CNET acquired knowledge from trade watchdog Farm Forward that reveals the size of the disaster. Roughly 3 million turkeys have died as a result of Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza, or HPAI, thus far this yr. That is already greater than double the whole hen flu deaths in 2024 (1.25 million), however nonetheless far lower than the livid 2022 epidemic that killed over 9 million.
In accordance with authorities knowledge, this loss — representing roughly 1.45% of the whole US turkey flock — is driving wholesale turkey costs up greater than 26% from final yr. Different projections, together with from Bernt Nelson, an economist on the American Farm Bureau Federation who spoke to The New York Times, have the leap in turkey costs nearer to 40%.
As reported by Axios, the US turkey flock is at a 40-year low. In accordance with the USDA, simply 4.8 billion kilos of manufacturing is anticipated, down 5% from 2024.
An accelerating outbreak
The unfold of HPAI has accelerated dramatically in current months, simply forward of the vital vacation season:
- 110 particular person outbreaks have occurred on industrial turkey farms in 2025.
- The outbreak is intensifying: 34 industrial turkey flocks have been affected since Aug. 2025, with 21 flocks hit in Sept. alone and 15 already in Oct.
- Minnesota leads the nation in losses, with 962,300 turkeys culled.
- Ohio has skilled the best variety of outbreaks, with 41 particular person farms affected (leading to 511,400 turkey deaths).
Federal coverage below scrutiny
Whereas the quick disaster impacts customers’ wallets, Farm Ahead argues that long-standing federal insurance policies, maintained throughout a number of administrations, have enabled circumstances conducive to the large and chronic unfold of HPAI.
The group contends that the federal authorities and poultry trade have prioritized income over public well being by permitting the operation of crowded concentrated animal feeding services, resisting obligatory HPAI testing protocols and declining to implement vaccination applications for poultry, regardless of their effectiveness in different international locations.
